by Robert J. Schiller published a new paper that looks for markers at the ends of real estate booms or busts:
Historic Turning Points in Real Estate by Robert Shiller.
His best guess “is that ends of housing booms have multiple causes, and cannot generally be interpreted as just an unraveling of boom psychology. Still a rising sense of enthusiasm and excitement for the investments, followed by a sense of betrayal and embarrassment at having fallen for the boom and underestimating the supply response to the boom, played a significant, if unquantifiable, role in the booms and their subsequent break.”
