Doug Cornelius .com

Standard & Poor’s announced that Health Care REIT Inc. (NYSE:HCN) will replace Sovereign Bancorp Inc.(NYSE:SOV) in the S&P 500. Standard & Poor’s Announces Changes to U.S. Indices [.pdf] Sovereign is being acquired by Banco Santander SA, leaving a vacancy in the index.

Health Care REIT, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust that invests across the full spectrum of senior housing and health care real estate, including independent living/continuing care retirement communities, assisted living facilities, skilled nursing facilities, hospitals, long-term acute care hospitals and medical office buildings.

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The Urban land Institute’s  Emerging Trends in Real Estate for 2009 came out with a picture of doom and gloom, predicting that in 2009, commercial real estate will suffer its worst year since the industry’s crash of 1991-92, with a noticeable rebound unlikely until 2011 at the earliest. It also forecasts a decline of 15% to 20% in property values, on average, from their 2007 peaks, with even sharper declines coming in weaker markets.

Of the 50 markets tracked, the study found only Dallas and Houston have prospects for investment and development in 2009 that should be better than in 2008, thanks to their exposure to the energy industry. All other markets face deteriorating conditions next year, the study said.

But, the report does point out that there are opportunities to be found.

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Pensions and Investments Online put together a list of the Largest Real Estate Investment Managers. The list is ranked by total worldwide real estate assets, in millions, as of June 30, 2008.

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The White House and Congressional Leaders finalized the Bailout Bill: Current draft of the Economic Emergency Stabilization Act of 2008. (from the Wall Street Journal) It will be interesting to see how it progresses through the House and Senate. I expect to see a lot of salesmanship as politicians try to weave into their current political campaigns.

What does it actually do?  Read this summary from the WSJ.com: Shape of Massive Bailout Bill Starts to Develop Definition. 

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Over the weekend, Lehman Brothers lost its interested buyers and got ready to file for bankruptcy. According to the New York Times, interested buyers wanted the federal backstop that was put into place for JP Morgan Chase purchase of Bear Stearns: 2 Wall St. Banks Falter; Markets Shaken.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the lack of a backstop scared off Bank of America and Barclays PLC: Ultimatum by Paulson Sparked Frantic End. Most people think various buyers will swoop in and buy individual pieces of Lehman.

On Sunday afternoon, a trading session was opened to allow firms to try to unwind their derivatives transactions with Lehman by finding other parties to step into Lehman’s shoes: Lehman Risk Reduction Trading Session and Protocol Agreement.

It should be an interesting Monday and an interesting week.

Thanks to Rob Hyndman for coming up with this blog post title. I stole it from one of his Twitter Post (@rhh)

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All of these companies are clients of The Firm, but I am not aware of The Firm’s participation in any of the weekend’s events. If The Firm was involved, I was not. 

National Real Estate Investor published a story by Joe Gose on the flow of capital into distressed property funds: Opportunity Funds OVERFLOWETH.

“Opportunity funds concentrating on distress intend to take advantage of the seized-up debt markets in a few different ways. Many funds are buying debt at a discount from investment banks stuck with billions of dollars of loans they can’t securitize. Other investors believe loose underwriting and over-leveraged properties will soon lead to maturity defaults, essentially defaults that occur when a landlord can’t refinance a property because it isn’t worth the loan coming due or because a landlord can’t come up with a slug of equity that lenders want. Those funds intend to buy up that real estate, or at least gain a position in the assets.”

It will be interesting to see if the capital markets come back into time to avoid a commercial real estate crash.  The loose underwriting standards we saw eighteen months ago are gone (for the foreseeable future). But most commercial property owners have enough cash flow to pay the monthly debt payments.

The problem will come at maturity. Commercial property owners may have a hard time rounding mortgage debt to replace the maturing debt. It was the short maturity on Mr. Macklowe’s debt that forced him to sell the GM Building. More commercial property owners are going to be faced with mortgage debt maturity. Will there be mortgage debt there to replace it?

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I was poking around for a definition of Class A buildings and had a hard time finding a solid definition.

In BOMA’s Building Class Definitions, buildings are grouped into Class A, Class B and Class C. But BOMA does not recommend the publishing of a classification rating for individual properties.

Metropolitan Base Definitions

Class A. Most prestigious buildings competing for premier office users with rents above average for the area. Buildings have high quality standard finishes, state of the art systems, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence.

Class B. Buildings competing for a wide range of users with rents in the average range for the area. Building finishes are fair to good for the area. Building finishes are fair to good for the area and systems are adequate, but the building does not compete with Class A at the same price.

Class C. Buildings competing for tenants requiring functional space at rents below the average for the area.

BOMA goes further with International definitions:

International Base Definitions

Investment. Investment quality properties are those that are unique in their location in the best metropolitan markets in the world, their design and construction quality, the solidity of the tenants and the tenant markets that they serve and the outstanding building management that is responsible for operating and maintaining them. These properties stand out as leaders not only within their own metropolitan areas but also within the international investment community. Investment properties usually contain state of the art mechanical, electrical, life safety, elevator and communications systems. Their finishes are of the highest standards and they often provide the occupants with a mix of amenities – in variety and quality – that is exceptional. Often they house a lead tenant for whom the property is named and usually they are located in a premier metropolitan area. Investment grade properties need not be considered to be “trophy” material but trophy properties are usually investment grade.

Institutional. Institutional grade properties are those of sufficient size and stature that they merit attention by large national or international investors, hence the name. These properties are of good design and construction, although they are rarely monumental in design or the use of construction materials. They are typically large. They may be located in secondary metropolitan areas, but invariably they will have a very stable tenant base.

Speculative. Speculative properties usually will conform to popular design conventions (at the time that they are constructed), but without the use of exceptional materials or construction methods. The design and construction of these properties emphasizes functionality, in contrast with aesthetics or image and the design rarely reflects the image of any particular tenant or occupant. To attract national or international attention, speculative properties must be relatively large, although minimum size requirements are lower for properties located in premier office markets. They are often occupied by multiple tenants.

Of course, Wikipedia has an entry: Wikipedia’s Class A Office Space

Although the US seems to be lacking objective classification of buildings, the Moscow office market has laid out some objective standards for classifying buildings: Office Building Classification. According to the Moscow Office of Jones Lang LaSalle:

The new classification aims to divide the office stock into three classes according to a number of objective criteria. The classification was developed with the participation of professionals from the Construction, Property Management and Office Service industries.  The principal difference of the new classification from the previous one is the division of stock into ?, ?+ and ?- classes. The major difference is also in giving a more structured criteria for modern office building classification. Leading real estate consultants: CB Richard Ellis Noble Gibbons, Colliers International, Cushman and Wakefield, Stiles and Riabokobylko and Jones Lang LaSalle have prepared a new classification of office buildings, dividing modern quality office stock  into 3 classes: A, B+ and B-.

Square Feet started this with his (or her) Guide to Office Building Classifications.

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In last week’s Wall Street Journal, there was an article on Developers Diversified Realty Corp.’s plan to expand into Russia: Mall Developer Targets Russia.

I found the statistic on retail space to be really interesting.

In Russia, the volume of shopping space per 1,000 inhabitants makes up about 420 square feet, according to Maxim Karbasnikoff, European Director, Russia, at brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle. In contrast, there is 25,758 square feet of shopping space available for every 1,000 people in the U.S.

 It makes me want to head out to the Chestnut Hill Mall and mark off my own 5 feet square of space in the courtyard.

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The Boston Federal Reserve Bank has put together a great interactive map showing two decades of foreclosure activity in Massachusetts: Foreclosure Rates in Massachusetts Cities and Towns 1990-2007.

There is a lot of red, showing lots of foreclosures in 2007

But there was a lot more red in 1992

This graphic was developed in conjunction with a paper by Kristopher Gerardi, Adam Shapiro, and Paul S. Willen, “Subprime Outcomes: Risky Mortgages, Homeownership Experiences, and Foreclosures,” which presents the first rigorous assessment of the homeownership experience of subprime borrowers, using data on subprime mortgages, foreclosures, and house prices from 1989 to 2007 in Massachusetts cities and towns.

“Subprime Facts: What (We Think) We Know about the Subprime Crisis and What We Don’t,” by Christopher L. Foote, Lorenz Goette, Paul S. Willen, and Kristopher Gerardi.

Dynamic Maps of Nonprime Mortgage Conditions in the United States (Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

Thanks to Boston.com’s Real Estate Now for pointing out this map:
Mapping foreclosures
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